In politics, it is often when we do not expect it that we can surprise.
This is the case of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, alias PSPP, and the PQ at the moment.
He is running an interesting campaign: no useless controversies and a return to PQ fundamentals – language, identity and social democracy.
Of course, PSPP cannot dream of the government, nor of the official opposition, nor even of a PQ wave.
But polls show that there is an available political market for the PQ.
The last poll where the referendum question was asked credited 32% of separatists in Quebec.
They were once found exclusively in the PQ parent company.
Independence, however, has become a peripheral issue. Thus, many call themselves separatists today, as they call themselves ecologists, left, right, monarchist, libertarian… It no longer has a monopoly on the political heart.
As a result, these separatists dispersed everywhere, except the PLQ, you guessed it.
In number, there are more separatists in the CAQ than in the PQ.
Forty-three percent of caquistes say they are sovereignists, which is equivalent to about 20% of the pie of voters.
In the PQ, 86% say they are certainly independentists, but it only brings together 10% of Quebecers.
At QS, where Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois claims “not to have met a federalist”, only 39% say they are sovereignists. It seems obvious to me that these separatist solidarity will not waver towards the PQ.
These figures therefore lead us to this: to grow, the target of the PQ must be the separatists of the CAQ.
He must bring home the separatists who have taken refuge with a safe nationalist bet, saying to himself that it may not be the Klondike, but at least it is not the PLQ. A form of nationalist strategic voting, in other words.
It is paradoxical, in fact: PSPP must convince its exiles that the CAQ will win the election, and this, by many. And ultimately that she does not need their support.
The challenge of the next election is twofold. The first: who will be the alternative to the CAQ? If anyone has an idea, I’m a taker.
The second: what will be the center of gravity of the CAQ government, episode 2?
Example, the rise of Duhaime forces a repositioning to the right of the CAQ. Without a competitive PCQ in Quebec, the third link would be forgotten and Pierre Fitzgibbon would not go from a “yes-no-maybe-bin” about GNL-Quebec.
PSPP must make it clear that PQ deputies will force a more vigorous CAQ government on the defense of Quebec’s interests.
To make the PQ a tool to indirectly accomplish what they want and appreciate from the Legault government.
For the future, the PQ must have as its horizon the hope of being an independentist pressure group in Quebec. Like QS when it was described as the moral conscience of the Blue Room, the PQ must prepare to be the conscience of independence.
PSPP is also experiencing a good campaign by mirror effect.
The PLQ is still stunned by its laborious start to the campaign.
QS created doubt in the minds of potential voters as to their economic reliability with their promises of poorly targeted tax increases.
And the CAQ is leading a lackluster campaign that risks playing tricks on them.
We are in a moment of political uncertainty, which will culminate in the leaders’ debates.
It is at this time that PSPP will have the best chance to expose the danger of renouncing a Quebec political life without a clearly sovereignist party.
Léger survey conducted from June 17 to 19, 2022 among 1041 Quebecers. It is not possible to calculate a margin of error on a sample drawn from a panel, but for comparison purposes, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1041 Quebecers is ± 3% and this 19 times out of 20.
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