Here is an overview of the voting intentions of voters in the different regions of Quebec and the struggles to watch, according to a Léger-The newspaper-TVA-QUB.
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Photo QMI Agency, Gabriel Côté
Duhaime in force on the south shore of Quebec
Unsurprisingly, the National Capital will be the scene of a fight between François Legault and Éric Duhaime. The CAQ has a good head start, but the concentration of the Conservative vote in certain ridings could allow the PCQ to elect deputies. The south shore of Quebec, Chaudière-Appalaches, appears to be the most fertile ground for the former radio host. “The first region for the PCQ, points out Mr. Léger. (Ex-political analyst and star candidate) Martine Biron (who is trying to get elected in Chutes-de-la-Chaudière), she has to be careful because it is the fourth riding that the PCQ is thinking of taking , after Chauveau, Beauce-north and Beauce-south”.
Photo QMI Agency / Mario Beauregard
Liberals in Trouble
After a breakthrough in Sainte-Rose in the 2018 elections, the CAQ could make further gains in Laval on October 3. The fight promises to be hot between CAQ and Liberals, who currently hold the majority of constituencies. Dominique Anglade’s team is in difficulty in this region, while the Liberal Party only garners 24% support there. “There are four Liberal counties that are, in my opinion, in trouble. We are talking about Vimont, Mille-Îles, Laval-des-Rapides, Fabre. Chomedey is a riding that the Liberals will win, whatever happens,” comments the pollster.
Formerly strongly sympathetic to the Liberals, the Outaouais region could switch entirely to the CAQ, which now collects 41% of the voting intentions there. In the last election, the traditionally red ridings of Papineau, Chapleau and Gatineau passed into the hands of the caquistes. The counties of Hull and Pontiac could suffer a similar fate. Thus, even the incumbent and parliamentary leader of the Liberal Party, André Fortin, is in danger. “The Liberals are threatened everywhere in the Outaouais,” says the pollster.
Photo Patrick Bellerose, QMI Agency
Legault does not seduce / QS-PLQ fight
With a starving 15% of support among Montrealers, François Legault failed to win the hearts of voters in the metropolis. The missteps of the leader of the CAQ on the subject of immigration since the start of the electoral campaign obviously do not improve the party’s score on the island. The Liberal Party still dominates in Montreal, followed by Québec solidaire. In some counties, close struggles are to be expected between Liberals and Solidarity. This is the case of the riding of Verdun, currently liberal, as well as that of Saint-Henri-Saint-Anne, represented by leader Dominique Anglade in the National Assembly. Jean-Marc Léger specifies, however, that party leaders sometimes benefit from a “bonus at the ballot box” because of their position. “But it can happen. Pauline Marois was beaten, Jean Charest was beaten, Jean-François Lisée was beaten (in his own side), it can still happen.
Will the PQ resist the CAQ push?
If the CAQ dominates in the voting intentions in Bas-Saint-Laurent, Gaspésie and Îles-de-la-Madeleine, the Parti Québécois could succeed in keeping a few ridings there. With 24% support in these regions, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s troops can achieve a good score in counties like Matane-Matapédia, stronghold of incumbent Pascal Bérubé, as well as in Gaspé and Bonaventure. “But in other parts of this region it is going to be more difficult. It is a truly CAQ-PQ battle, the other parties exist much less (in these regions)”, underlines Jean-Marc Léger.